The Iowa Primary

The Iowa primary was won by 8 votes. The top three were Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul. The important thing about these results are that the top three is past campaigns have been able to go on and getting the nomination while the rest usually don’t do as well. Rick Perry seems to be considering leaving the race and some analysis believe that Bachmann’s campaign might be ending as well, despite Bachmann stating otherwise. In addition, the top three get a boost in fundraising for example Rick Santorum has collected more money in this month than the past six months. The other big thing discussed in the article is that with Romney holding steady and not gaining much support he is that he should be worried about people dropping out of the race.

Romney‘s support seems mostly from his economic issues and the support of Rick Santorum, Michelle Bachmann, and Rick Perry is based on social issues. This is concerning for Romney because Bachmann and Perry have been having a hard time and might soon drop out. The problem for Romney is that currently the evangelical vote is split between Santorum, Bachmann and Perry. If that vote is no longer split it could give one of the three candidates the boost to knock Romney out of the front runner position. Imagine if Perry and Bachmann where out of the race and Santorum would have gotten their combined 15% in the Iowa primary Santorum would have won and we might be discussing how he would beat Obama instead of how Romney would beat Obama.

The other interesting thing about the results are Ron Paul got into the top three and a candidate that most analysis feel would have a hard time winning in the general election showed that he could run with Romney. It also gave Paul a chance to say “’Let’s go back to this real old-fashioned idea, this very dangerous idea: Let’s obey the Constitution.” I wish that Santorum had said something on the issues in his comments about the primary, like Paul. However we got a weak response on that he will compete in New Hampshire.   I feel that Paul and Santorum are the winners of yesterday primary they showed that they could be considered by the Republicans of Iowa to be real candidates and went toe to toe with Romney. The things we need to look for in New Hampshire is if Romney can start pulling away to show he is the front-runner and if Santorum can gain ground on more than social issues and win over the fiscally concerned Republicans of New Hampshire


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  • Ian Fong  On January 4, 2012 at 11:21 am

    I find it interesting how Rick Santorum excelled so quickly to become one of the top three republican candidates. I thought Newt Gingrich would end up in that position yet he found himself falling short in the 4th winning spot.

  • kessledi  On January 4, 2012 at 12:54 pm

    I think that Santorum has a hard road ahead of him even with Bachmann’s withdrawal from the race and Perry’s soon to be withdrawal (in my opinion at least). Santorum is reminding me a lot of Mike Huckabee from the 2008 election cycle, and Romney of John McCain. Huckabee won in Iowa with a large margin over all the other candidates, the margin that Santorum would have likely won if Bachmann and Perry had not been there. Despite that, he was unable to keep his momentum going, McCain won in New Hampshire, and Huckabee fizzled out. I think that this election is going to go the same way, with Santorum fizzling out in the next couple months (my guess: by March), and Romney being the eventual nominee.

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