Blue Collar Candidate

In the current presidential race the main concern for many of the voters is that the candidates are out of touch with there needs.  Due to that many have put there fate in Rick Santorum.  He has tried to make his entire campaign about how he is one those blue collar workers and wants to change thing to help them not just the rich lobbyists.  To show that first he used a pick up truck and a record setting low amount of money in Iowa.  He now has a new strategy.  His most recent speech last Saturday was about a story when he was just a young man running for congress.  The story was in short, about a dog that relieved himself on Rick’s lap.  But instead of calling a paid worker and getting new pants or anything he simply kept trucking on.  The morale of the story is to show the point that once he didn’t have anything the will to succeed in politics and now he is running for the nomination of the president of the united states.  This is his way of say that he is just one of those blue collar normal guys with dreams about keeping the american dream alive, by showing that he is a prime example of how the american dream can happen.

Source:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/post/rick-santorum-and-the-dog-that-had-an-accident/2012/02/19/gIQAgNJkNR_blog.html?tid=pm_politics_pop

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Republican Stand Together

In a recent interview with Michelle Bachmann, Ron Paul, and Mitch Daniels there was a consistent message.  Obama has to go.  This is the main concern for all the republican candidates.  Even the ex-candidate Michelle Bachmann said in the interview that she thinks all of the republican candidates currently running would all be better suited than Obama.  This however isn’t shown with the top runners of the candidates.  Instead they are continuing to fight and bash each other in public.  This only gives the democrats more fuel to use against any of them in the future.  The smart thing in this race would to let Romney and Santorum fight it out and Paul and Newt leave the scene, because the longer there is a four man race the more the republican party looks to be separated.  If Newt and Paul step out of the race and state that they think either candidate would be better than Obama just like other ex-candidates have done, the support for the republicans as a whole would increase.

Source:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/02/19/ron_paul_michele_bachmann_and_mitch_daniels_on_state_of_the_union_113188.html

Ron Paul’s Chances

Ron Paul has been on the back burner for quite some time and is currently in fourth place of the presidential race.  Due to this most have counted him out and think he cant win even with a huge amount of support that would be needed.  Instead people are congratulating Paul’s achievements in the Caucus states.  Those achievements might get him a spot in the Republican National Convention.  That is a big step for him and would prove he is a legitimate threat to the Candidates of the future.  That puts Paul in the perfect position to try for another nomination in the future.  This is because he not only got his name known this year, he also Showed he is a real contender and stands a chance in future elections.  This year he will instead be helpful because even if he doesn’t win a state he is taking a big chunk of votes away from other candidates making the race tighter and tighter.  This result is seen with the race between Romney and Satorum.

Source:

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2012/02/20/paul_looks_for_delegates_respect_in_caucus_states/

Newt?

In the last few weeks Santorum has pulled to the front, Romney has tried to catch up, and Newt seems to have been left at the starting gates.  The race has recently seemed to only involve Santorum and Romney, but the fact is that Newt is still a strong third place candidate.  His poll numbers are decent and we have already seen Santorum jump to the front fast, what is stopping Newt?  The answer is nothing, Newt could jump to the top and be a front runner at any time especially if he has a good day on super Tuesday.  The likely hood of this happening is slowly getting smaller as the process goes further into the year, but at the time there is a chance Newt will be up there in the next few weeks.

Source

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/02/20/newt-gingrich-georgia-primary-_n_1288709.html

 

Michigan race

The Michigan race has recently got a lot more interesting.  Santorum did have a 15 point lead and in the last week had it shrunk down to 2 points.  This makes the race for Santorum and Romney too close to call.  But how did Romney pull off a jump like he did?  Could it have been the support from Donald Trump I mentioned in my last blog? I think that the article I just read from the Daily Kos explains it best by saying there was a dramitic shift in the number of Evangelical voter to non-Evangelical voters.  With that put in place and this jump putting him so close to Santorum could Romney jump back in front and be the winner.  Currently it is too close to call for sure, Satorum has the lead at the moment, but anything could change outcome.  Maybe Romney’s help from Trump wouldn’t be as bad as I thought.

 

source:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/02/20/1066615/-Michigan-Republican-primary-Rick-nbsp-Santorum-stays-on-top

Romney Needs Help

Going into the Michigan elections Mitt Romney decided he might need some help to trump Santorum, a candidate that has been giving Romney trouble with his campaign.  The help is none other than Donald Trump.  He met with Trump to get help in a way to “Trump” Santorum.  This is sign that shows the Romney might be losing his grip of the campaign and needs help keeping himself on top.  The assistance is mainly funding for more political ads, that Romney thinks will show the people of Michigan he is the right candidate.  I don’t know how this will really help his public views though since his main problem is relating to the blue collar middle class, something Santorum has done well.  This assistance though, will just further the public opinion that he is an out of touch, rich, politician.  These are the same reasons he is losing votes to begin with.  So i guess we will have to wait and see about this “help”.

source:

http://hotair.com/archives/2012/02/20/new-romney-strategy-in-michigan-try-to-trump-santorum/

Santorum?

In the last few weeks of the nomination race a lot has occurred.  The thought that Romney will run away with the nomination and not even break a sweat has vanished and now Santorum has a huge lead in Texas.  Santorum seemed to have fallen off the wagon after Iowa with Newt and Romney fighting it out, but the latest polls say the Santorum has a big lead in Texas and will probably win the state.  When only a few weeks ago people still believed Romney would take the nomination without effort, now the race looks like he wont stand a chance.  With each state lost Romney’s chances are diminishing.  how long will they last, can they jump back or is he done for good?  I think Santorum will take the lead and win now but the race isn’t over and Romney still has a chance to jump back, even though the longer this goes on the less that seems like a possibility.

What happened to the Tea Party?

Throughout the Republican race, there has been no candidate “endorsed” by the Tea Party. Despite Romney’s trouble in convincing voters that he is conservative enough to be their standard bearer, Tea Partiers have had significant trouble getting behind a single candidate. After varying from Bachmann to Perry to Cain, the Tea Party has overall torn itself between Gingrich, Santorum, and Paul. This in turn has allowed Romney to continue in his status as the front-runner despite significant doubts as to his conservativeness. Recent polls have shown support for the Tea Party has dropped among Americans as a whole, further weakening the cause. The question has become: has the Tea Party run its course?

I think that with the way the race is going now, the Tea Party will have little impact on the presidential race. I think that the impact the Tea Party has had on the Republican party as a whole in the past 3 years has shown that they are not to be trusted by voters, especially after the antics of the Tea Party-charged House last year. The Republican party has taken up its positions and integrated the Tea Party into itself quite securely, thus weakening the cause further. The Tea Party might hang on for a couple more years, influencing various Congressional races, however in national politics I think that the Tea Party has done as much as it can do and is overall going to die out.

The Weekly Recap

This has been a relatively a quiet week on the campaign trail, but there were still some headlines made.

  • There was actually a recount in the close Maine primary, and was some speculation that Mitt may actually lose this race after the recount was over. He actually gained votes during the recount, and still remained the winner.
  • Obama is starting more to raise money for his campaign. It was reported that he made $12 Million last month alone. Obama has always been a great fundraiser, and will be tough for someone like Santorum to complete with him if they go head to head.
  • Romney’s PAC has bought $7.7 Million in TV ad time in the next two weeks, including $1.8 Million in Michigan alone. This is on top of the reported $10 Million spent in Florida. Santorum will spend about $800,000 in Michigan. The two candidates’ definitely have different tactics, but I think we have seen that throwing money in ads is not necessarily the best strategy.
  • In the rest of the world, tensions between Iran and Israel have escalated. Newspapers report that military action is “likely.” NJ Assembly approved the gay marriage mill, but Christie vetoed it today. A fight to overrule the veto is likely to ensue.

The most likely unlikey case of Sarah Pailin becoming President

As the primary looms and the race become closer, the media is grabbing on to the possibility that a brokered convention may become a possibility. A brokered convention is a scenario where candidates will split the vote during primary season, and neither would receive enough to delegates to have a majority. If this happens, then the delegates are released from their pledged candidate, and may vote for someone else. There are predictions that the Republicans may ditch their top candidate and turn to someone else they feel will have a better chance defeating Obama.

Romney has failed again to obtain a firm backing from the conservatives, and senior Republicans do not believe Santorum can beat Obama will his social views and cultural wars he has been part of.  This was shown when Santorum ran for reelection in Pennsylvania, and lost by 18%. If Santorum beats Romney in his home state, than this will only fuel the fire of a weak Republican Party, and intensify the cry for someone else in the party to enter the field and to challenge Obama. “It’s hard for me to see how Romney rights the ship if he loses Michigan,” said Republican strategist Matt Mackowiak. “There is no level of spin that can overcome that disaster.”

Some people the Republicans may turn to if this goes on are Chris Christie, Mitch Daniels, Jeb Bush or Paul Ryan. They have all turned down running earlier, but may step up to the plate if needed. Sarah Palin has also been in the news recently for wanting to “help” if the race goes to a brokered convention. We could be looking at a brokered convention,” she told Fox Business Network on Wednesday. “Months from now, if that’s the case, all bets are off as to who it will be willing to offer up themselves … in service to their country. I would do whatever I could to help.” This year has made a brokered convention a greater possibility with the elimination of winner take all in some states. This means that candidates will still get delegates in states they lose, making it more difficult for someone to get a majority. Do you think this is a possibility? Someone besides Santorum or Romey being the nominee?